Maybe its my desire to apply my
undergraduate economics degree, but when I heard this morning estimates that
true improvement in employment according to USA estimates is still at least 3
years away (a number below 6 %), I got to thinking about Canada as well. For my
fellow Americans that do not know Canada , while the USA has suffered thru probably one of the worse
economic downturns since the depression of the early 1930's, Canada 's economy
has surged like know other of the economically developed countries. Housing
prices are "irrationally exuberant", employment is pretty good, the Canadian
stock market has outperformed (gold and mineral based), and the Canadian dollar,
as measured against the greenback is above par versus the $ USA ! The
Canadian dollar value is really hard to believe. And I'm not sure if it is good
for Canada or bad, especially since Canada does
the majority of its trade with the USA .
When we started SP Data 7
years ago, it was about 3/4's of a $ USA , and before that it was even as
low as $ 0.62 of a Canadian dollar. Oil, gold and potash aside aside,
Canada is over heated. I do not mean
to be a pessimist as I'm very proud of my Canadian roots, but my gut tells me
that things are not as good as they appear. I forecast a downturn for
Canada , and an upturn from
the worst for the USA . The worse may be over, though
new dynamics with similar despair are going to persist. I see huge debt
leverage, radio adds pushing refinancing, personal credit improvement, all the
same products that hit the USA market. The only difference is
Canadian consumers used to be different.
Nonetheless, across the board,
we are seeing call volume forecasts, whether sales, tech support or service
miss forecasts to the downside. Oh sure, several clients have closed call
centers or other operations, but that is more systematic due to their market
position. For example, just take a look at the USA mobile
market, where the big 2 have continue to increase their market share. Having
said that, aside from customer defection due to inferior service or offering,
lies another trend. Volumes are lower across the board, and companies are
fighting hard, not just to grow, but to remain whole. One must look closely
sometimes inside the numbers to see the whole story. Al large media Company
yesterday reported a gain in profit, but that gain came form broadcast and other
digital properties. The original "core" cable business, actually lost
customers.
My point is the drop in
customer volume is not because customers are using social media or other
channels. At SP Data we are constantly evolving our service offering, and
the social media channel is bursting with opportunity and excitement. The
reality is that volume is driving down because customers lack confidence in the
future. So do our clients need to accept a decline in business volume? Do they
just continue to trim fat when little fat exists to trim? Our answer is that
they begin to think of like minded partners and work together. The partners that
offer the best benefit to the consumer, the best value will
win.
I wake up every day so grateful
and lucky that i can work and make a difference. With all the bad things one
reads each day, take a look at the best companies in each industry you follow
and ask yourself, what are they doing right.? Like the consumer, the gap between
those that succeed and those that do not is getting greater and greater. Unlike
the consumer, a business (aside from an essential employer such as General
Motors), will not receive government help and thus, needs to put together a best
in breed strategy for success. Business today is action packed, and moving
faster and faster.

Well said Dan. But in the words of that great philosopher Yogi Berra. "it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."
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